So dear friends to Newquay this weekend for the end of the credit crunched UK Pro Tour. Staggering into town like a punch drunk Russian boxer. The tour might have had it's oft admired and much missed Triple Crown decapitated this year (boo! hiss! we love that week! as does everyone!) but we still have the end of year ding-dong sponsored by those lovely Animals (them with the event ad over there >>>).
I've been crunching the numbers as best I can like a slimmer, younger version of the ASP stats guru Al Hunt. The best five events of six count and with a 1000-points on offer to the winner mathematically the cut off to be Tour Champ is Micah in 6th place... Here are the top-6 and possible outcomes if they win.
- Reubyn Ash- 3605 (throwaway 400 so can gain 600 to finish on 4205)
- Mark Harris- 3593 (throwaway 500 so can gain 500 to finish on 4093)
- Tom Butler- 3585 (throwaway 400 so can gain 600 to finish on 4185)
- Oli Adams- 3515 (throwaway 400 so can gain 600 to finish on 4115)
- Alan Stokes- 3290 (no throwaway so can gain 1000 to finish on 4290)
- Micah Lester- 3090 (throwaway 400 so can gain 600 to finish on 3690)
So Micah has a weeny chance if he wins the thing and and the top-4 get mysteriously abducted by aliens and don't compete and Stoker bombs out early. Unlikely but you never know. (Update 12/11: Reubin Pearce in same situ)
The top-5 are all within a whisker of each other so if they win the event they win the tour no matter where the rest of the top-4 finish. But the whole thing hangs on Mr Stokes making the final. Him with the no throwaway. If Stoker gets second to finish on 4150-points then he's won the tour unless Reubs or Tom wins... I think. Whatever my brain hurts now. See you there... (Oh and look at the forecast!)
(FYI: 1st place gets 1000-points, 2nd- 860, 3rd- 730, 4th- 670)
